Traders await high impacting US economic data and key Brexit votes
GDP AND CPI
During the upcoming trading week the United States economy is heavily in focus, with the world’s largest economy releasing a slew of high impacting data points, including Retail Sales, CPI, PPI, Durable Goods, Housing and Consumer Confidence data. The British pound is likely to remain volatile this week as we see another key Brexit vote in UK Parliament, with British Prime Minister Theresa May attempting to push through her meaningful Brexit bill. If British PM May fails to pass her deal, UK lawmakers will have the option on whether or not extend the United Kingdom’s departure date from the European Union.
This week we also see an important interest rate decision from the Bank of Japan, with the BOJ widely tipped to rates on hold and talk up global risks. Other key events on the economic docket this week include Chinese Industrial Production data, EU inflation figures and United Kingdom GDP and Trade data.
Monday 11th March, USD United States Retail Sales
US Retail Sales is released by the United States Census Bureau and measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level over a stated time period. This figure represents an indicator of consumer spending inside the United States economy. Higher retail sales figures generally indicate stronger consumer spending, which is vital for US GDP and economic growth.
- The USDJPY pair is only bullish while trading above the 111.00 level, further gains towards 112.20 and 113.00 levels would then seems possible.
- If the USDJPY pair trades below the 111.00 level, sellers may test towards the 110.65 and 110.00 support levels.
Tuesday 12th March, USD US Consumer Price Index
The US Consumer Price Index is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and evaluates the fluctuations in the cost of living by measuring the changes in prices consumers pay for a set of items. In terms of an inflation measurement, the Consumer Price Index is the most obvious way to quantify fluctuations in purchasing power, although the Federal Reserve relies on the PCE Deflator as its primary means to determine whether inflation is occurring.
- The USDCHF pair is bullish while trading above the 1.0010 level, key resistance is found at the 1.0090 and 1.0150 levels.
- If the USDCHF pair moves below the 1.0010 level, sellers will likely test towards the 0.9950 and 0.9890 support levels.
Wednesday 13th March, USD United States PPI
The Producer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Department of Labor measures changes in the selling prices producers charge for US goods and services and tracks how prices feed through the production process. PPI is valuable as an early indicator of inflation because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices. It also gives an image of how higher prices from raw materials flow toward the final product.
- The GBPUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.3100 level, key resistance is found at the 1.3200 and 1.3350 levels.
- If the GBPUSD pair moves above the 1.3100 level, key support is found at the 1.2970 and 1.2840 levels.
Thursday 14th March, CNY Chinese Industrial Production
The Chinese Industrial Production Index is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China and is an economic indicator that measures changes in output for the manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Industrial Production figures are also used by central banks to measure inflation, especially inside nations that heavily rely on industrial manufacturing and raw material exportation.
- The AUDUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 0.7080 level, key support is found at the 0.7000 and 0.6930 levels.
- If the AUDUSD pair moves above the 0.7080 level, buyers may test towards the 0.7130 and 0.7180 resistance levels.
Friday 15th March, EUR Eurozone Consumer Price Index
The eurozone Consumer Price Index, released by Eurostat measures the changes in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. A higher value of the CPI represents significant inflationary pressures in the eurozone economies and also puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. CPI data may not affect the markets significantly because CPI is the European Central Bank's mandated inflation target.
- The EURUSD pair bearish while trading below the 1.1300 level, key support is found at the 1.1170 and 1.1120 levels.
- If the EURUSD pair moves above the 1.1300 level, buyers will likely test towards the 1.1330 and 1.1360 resistance levels.