ALL EYES ON EUROZONE GDP
Eurozone data will dominate headlines on Tuesday, culminating in a quarterly GDP report that is expected to reaffirm the region’s healthy recovery.
The European Commission’s statistical agency will release preliminary third-quarter GDP figures at 10:00 GMT. The report is expected to show quarterly growth of 0.5%, following a gain of 0.6% in April-June. In annualized terms, this should translate into a 2.4% growth pace.
At the same time, the European government will report on unemployment and consumer inflation. Joblessness in the 19-nation euro is forecast to fall to 9% in September from 9.1% the previous month.
Meanwhile, the consumer price index (CPI) is projected to fall to 1.4% annually in October, down from 1.5% the previous month.
Italy will also release its latest batch of inflation data on Tuesday, while Greece will report on retail sales for the month of August.
Earlier in the day, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) voted to keep monetary policy on hold in a decision that was widely expected by market participants. The BOJ has held its main interest rate at -0.1% since early 2016 in support of its growth and inflation targets. With Prime Minister Shinzo Abe winning re-election in convincing fashion, investors can expect Abenomics to continue well into the future.
The USD/JPY touched a session low of 112.95 on Tuesday, but quickly recovered to settle around 113.14. The pair has enjoyed a solid uptrend over the past two weeks as the US dollar asserted its confidence on the global currency market. However, the pair has declined since Friday’s three-month high above 114.00. The immediate support for the USD/JPY is likely situated around 112.90. On the opposite side of the ledger, immediate resistance is likely to be found around 114.00.
The euro has been under pressure since the European Central Bank (ECB) announced it would likely extend its record bond-buying program beyond September 2018. The decision triggered a 200-pip decline for the EUR/USD. As of Tuesday, the pair still hadn’t recovered and was trading around 1.1636. The outlook remains tilted to the downside, as the euro bulls contend with a brewing crisis in Spain over Catalan independence. Levels to watch for the EUR/USD include 1.1685 on the upside and 1.1595 on the downside.
Precious metals have suffered a series of sharp declines over the past two weeks, with gold prices falling to their lowest level since July. Prices were little changed around $1,275 on Tuesday. The bulls are eyeing a close above $1,285 for a signal of upside momentum. On the flipside, the bears are keeping a close eye on $1,265. A dip below that level could expose bullion to heavier losses over the short term.